A president who raided another country in the middle of the night now claims to own half its oil, and the whole thing is described, in the main document we have, by a single social media post.


"THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY"

โ€” President Donald Trump, on the deal to take control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil

The White House has not released a single page of the agreement. It announced "the biggest oil deal in world history" with a social media post, then mostly stopped talking. That should have told Americans everything they need to know. The substance of the deal, as far as the public can see, is a string of superlatives and a 100-year concession over 17 oil fields in a country whose president was seized from his home by American special forces seven months ago.


Here is what is actually known. Under the deal, the U.S. government and an unnamed private operator in Venezuela formed a new private company granted rights to 17 untapped fields with a proven potential of 65 billion barrels. The United States will keep 55 percent of the company's effective output, an ownership stake plus the right to buy oil at cost. The Venezuelan side, a statement from acting President Delcy Rodriguez, says the arrangement could pull in $100 billion in investment and produce $209 billion in taxes for Caracas over its lifetime. Trump said the deal was negotiated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and that it was struck "at no cost to the American taxpayer."

The company, an official said, would be the second largest corporate holder of proven reserves on Earth after Saudi Aramco. In one night, the United States went from being the world's top oil producer to a majority owner of a piece of another country's soil.

Translation: this is less a trade deal than a change of address.


The obvious question is why now, and the answer is staring at us from the gas pump. With the Iran war choking off Persian Gulf shipping, the national average for gasoline had climbed to about $4.08 a gallon by Saturday, up from $3.20 at the same time last year, and consumer confidence had fallen to its lowest point in seven months. With the midterm election two months out, the administration needed a gas price story by Friday night. Venezuela's reserves, the largest proven in the world at an estimated 303 billion barrels, were the only prize on the map big enough to sound like a solution.

So they announced one, the same week the average American was paying the highest price in a year to fill a tank.


It will not work that way. Venezuela produces heavy, sour crude that is used to make diesel and asphalt, not the light, sweet crude that goes into gasoline. Its infrastructure has been rotting for decades. Energy experts who were not talking to a campaign manager were blunt about it. "It's not going to do anything to change the price of gasoline at the retail station for Labor Day weekend," said Amy Myers Jaffe of New York University. Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners warned that it will take "many years" to deploy the kind of capital the deal implies. The strategic petroleum reserve, which is supposed to be the emergency valve on this whole thing, had already been tapped below 300 million barrels, down more than 100 million in the past year.

The math the deal is built on does not survive contact with the pumps.


The legal side is almost more interesting than the energy side. Rodriguez, Maduro's former vice president, whom the United States backed after his capture, granted the new entity a 100-year concession over national resources. That has raised immediate questions under Venezuela's own constitution and hydrocarbons law, and not only from opponents of the deal. Harvard's Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan planning minister, called it a "shameful deal" and said Rodriguez "has no legitimacy or constitutional power to commit Venezuela to any such deal." "Venezuelans will not respect this illegitimate deal and no major US oil company will take it seriously because they know it will not last," he wrote. David Goldwyn, a veteran energy consultant, said there is simply "no precedent" for a foreign government entering a lease to operate another country's oil fields.

Congress, for its part, has been conspicuously uninvolved. Nobody called for the treaty to be laid before the Senate. No committee held a hearing. Lawmakers from both parties reacted on social media the way they react to everything now: in fragments.


In the market of eastern Caracas, a vendor named Douglas Borjas said he was angry at the announcement. "I think they're doing it to cling to power," he said of his own leadership. "It's like, 'I'm giving you a vast amount of petroleum as long as you leave me alone here in power.' The Venezuelan people deserve better. Venezuela has resources that can be exploited, but for the benefit of the people, not for the benefit of the corrupt elite."

That last line is the part the White House did not need to hear.


In Washington, the framing split the way it always does. Republican allies called it historic. Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, said that if it were up to Democrats, "Venezuelan oil would be going to China at half price." Democrats called it what it looks like. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., called it "corruption at epic scale" and noted that prices would come down "likely not as much as Trump has forced them up thru his idiotic Iran War." Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., said Trump "put our service members at risk to get Venezuelan oil for his billionaire buddies."


Here is the part that should not fit in any political category. This is not foreign aid, not sanctions relief, not diplomacy. It is the United States government taking a 55 percent operating interest in the proven reserves of a country whose head of state was kidnapped by its special forces in January and shipped to New York to stand trial. The BBC put the comparison that nobody else would: the arrangement appears wider in scope than the Coalition Provisional Authority's control of Iraq's oil revenues after the 2003 invasion. In that case, at least, the country had been physically occupied. Here, the occupier went home, left a friend in charge, and then came back to take the check.

The question was never whether the deal would be announced. The question was whether anyone would ask to see it.

trump, venezuela, oil, empire